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MMathematicsGeographyS3 to S6Real data

Rwanda population lab: real census data and growth models

Rwanda counted 13.2 million people in 2022. How fast is the population growing, and how many people will need schools and jobs in 2032 and 2050?

Rwanda census1978 → 2022: 4.8 → 13.2 million
LevelS3 to S6 (and IGCSE, A Level)
TimeAbout 40 min
You usePercentages, exponentials, logarithms
PriceFree: no account

🎯 Aim

To use real census data to calculate growth rates, compare exponential and linear models, and make and judge predictions of Rwanda’s population.

You will learn to

  • Calculate increases and compound annual growth rates.
  • Build exponential and linear models and compare them with data.
  • Calculate doubling time and population density.
  • Explain the limits of a model using history and context.

🧭 What to do

  1. Look at the five census points on the graph.
  2. Choose Exponential, start at 2022 and set the Growth rate to 2.3 %.
  3. Read the predictions for 2032 and 2050.
  4. Start the model at 1978 and change the rate: can one model fit every census?
  5. Try the Linear model. Answer the questions.
  6. Write your conclusion and download your lab report.

🔬 Lab bench

📋 The data

National census totals of Rwanda (National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda, NISR).

🧠 Investigate: answer from the data

Type your answer and tap Check. Use 💡 Hint first; open the method only when you are stuck.

📄 My lab report

Your report collects the aim, your data table, the graphs, your answers and your conclusion. It is made on your phone or computer: nothing is sent to anyone.

Check your conclusion

Between 2012 and 2022 the population grew by about 2.3 % a year; at that rate it doubles in about 30 years and would reach about 16.7 million in 2032. The increases grow each decade, so an exponential model fits better than a linear one. No single model fits every census: the 1991–2002 period includes the 1994 Genocide against the Tutsi, so predictions must be used with knowledge of history, and birth rates are also changing.

➕ Get more from this experiment

📝 Free

Print the worksheet (button above), download the data, and save your report. Teachers can project this page in class.

📦 Premium Lab Pack

1 000 RWF

  • Worksheet with census data and growth calculations
  • Exponential and logarithm practice from real data
  • Teacher guide and answer key
  • Exam-style modelling questions with marking scheme

👩‍🏫 For teachers

Use it as a practical when apparatus is missing, as homework, or as a project. Free lesson plans help you plan, teach and assess.

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